Newfoundland & Labrador, De-Confederation?

In what might be termed as a twist of fate, a quirk of history, or perhaps more accurately, as a major political shift, the two most popular leaders in the history of Newfoundland and Labrador appeared on the scene nearly six decades apart and represent completely opposite ends of the political spectrum.

Occasionally political leaders appear who naturally galvanize the spirit of an entire people. Newfoundland and Labrador has borne witness to two such leaders, in just under sixty years, in the form of Liberal premier Joey Smallwood and PC premier Danny Williams.

In their time both men captured the overriding sentiments of their people in a way few can, yet their actions and ideologies are so diametrically opposed that the support they each garnered speaks volumes about changing attitudes of voters since the Province entered Confederation.

It’s a fortunate fact that both leaders didn’t arrive on the scene at the same point in history. The fallout of such an event, the very impact of two such strong wills colliding and the flash that most assuredly would have resulted might have irreparably blinded every man, woman and child in the province, if not the Country itself.

Joey Smallwood, known to many in Canada as the last living Father of Confederation, is said to have led Newfoundland and Labrador into Canada kicking and screaming. Whether this is accurate or not, most assuredly he accomplished his objective by the shear power of his will and by the slimmest of margins.

Joey Smallwood was the most popular of leaders in his time but, make no mistake, the province’s entry into Canada was by no means a given. It was a bitter dog fight all the way and even today many open wounds remain. There are still those who question the validity of the referendum result and the very legality of the event itself.

In his day perhaps no leader on the face of the planet was more popular with his people than “Joey”. He reigned supreme in a time when the economy of Newfoundland and Labrador was at a low point and when the perceived benefits of entering Confederation could easily be trumpeted as manna from heaven, especially to those living under the worst of circumstances. Even so, the final tally on referendum day saw only a 2% majority opt into the Canadian experiment.

Fast forward sixty years and we find the people of Newfoundland and Labrador on the cusp of the brighter future espoused by Joey and his supporters so eloquently back 1949.

Generations have grown up, Smallwood himself has long since shuffled off this mortal coil, and still many in the province patiently await the dream their beloved leader spoke so generations ago. Even after sixty years the province still lags behind the rest of Canada in many ways but finally a glimmer of light has appeared on the horizon, thanks largely to resource revenues from the offshore and years of stubborn tenacity.

Many of the old scars from long ago, including those incurred during the tumultuous referendum battle, have yet to heal and many people blame the outfall of entering Canada as a major factor in the province’s painfully slow and very limited turn around.

Today oil revenues are flowing like a mighty river, the economy is leading the Nation but the Newfoundland and Labrador still has almost no voice on the federal scene and the highest unemployment rates in the Country.

Over the decades the federal government has presided over the collapse of the world’s greatest fishery, the backbone of Newfoundland and Labrador for five centuries. Ottawa promoted the removal of the province’s island wide railway and it left a land once recognized around the worlds as an international crossroads for shipping, military positioning and air travel with almost no international presence.

Ottawa refused to support Newfoundland and Labrador during the development of the Churchill River power project, in deference to Quebec, and in doing so allows the Province to struggle, until 2041, under a lopsided contract that sees billions flow to Quebec while Newfoundland and Labrador barely manages to keep the turbines turning and the dollars flowing westward.

Even today, as offshore oil flows like water and as the provincial economy leads the Nation, Newfoundland and Labrador finds itself battling Ottawa to gain much needed value from the resource.

The federal government refuses to allow the province to set time limits on oil developments, time limits that would prevent companies from sitting on valuable finds for decades. Ottawa has also remained silent on the future of the new Churchill River hydro project now in the early stages of planning. The federal government has yet to confirm whether or not it will support the development or even help ensure that Quebec does not hamper the transmission of this much needed power across the Country.

Joey Smallwood believed that Confederation would see a new and prosperous future visited upon his people. Today, generations later, thousands remain unemployed and thousands more leave every day, to work in the oil fields of Alberta or the factories of Ontario, splitting families apart. The fishery is a pitiful shadow of what it was in 1949 and most of those who still cling to it for survival do so for a pittance. Newfoundland and Labrador struggles under a crushing provincial debt and its crumbling infrastructure is costing provincial coffers hundreds of millions each year to maintain.

Enter Danny Williams. Like Joey Smallwood before him Newfoundland and Labrador’s newest Premier is a household name, every bit as popular as Smallwood himself. Unlike “Joey”, “Danny” does not spend his days extolling the virtues of Mother Canada, not by a long shot. Instead he has tapped into the long standing resentment and feelings of distrust that have stewed in the former Nation of Newfoundland ever since that oh so close vote six decades ago.

Williams, to all appearances, is nobody’s “federalist”. In fact he is not the least bit shy about attacking the actions (or inactions) of the federal government, of politicians and even of the Prime Minister himself. It’s an approach that has solidified his support and, while opening up many old wounds, appears to have also had a healing effect on many Newfoundlanders and Labradorians.

No longer is it acceptable in many circles when the term “Newfie” is flippantly tossed into the conversation. No longer are the people of Newfoundland and Labrador content to wait patiently for Ottawa to “do the right thing”. Today a renewed pride and sense of strength that has begun to emerge among a people long used to standing quietly on the sidelines with hat in hand.

By openly tossing out terms such as, “Autonomy” and “Masters of our own house” or by describing the people of Newfoundland and Labrador as “nation”, Danny Williams is sending a clear, direct and unmistakable message to Ottawa.

The message:

Newfoundland and Labrador was brought into Canada just an instant ago in the great expanse of history. It was delivered at the hands of a strong, focused and determined leader. Today, for better or worse, the people of Newfoundland and Labrador are once again standing firmly behind a new leader with the same sort of strength, focus and determination. Like Smallwood before him Williams’ message is resonating in the hearts and minds of the people of Newfoundland and Labrador. Unlike his predecessor however, this Premier appears to have a very different view of the Canadian federation.

Harper's Big Election Gamble

With Wednesday’s announcement of a compromise deal over the Atlantic Accord, Stephen Harper sent another clear signal he plans to force an election in the coming weeks. The question is whether the gamble to shore up support in Atlantic Canada will actually help him or cost him in the long run.

Although the deal will provide additional funds to the province, the amount will be far less than Nova Scotia had been fighting for. The move could, and likely will, be seen as an attempt by Harper to buy off the province before an election and to shore up a weak Conservative governemnt in that province.

Some analysts believe Harper wants to continue to govern but based on recent events it’s far more likely that, even with less than perfect polling numbers, the PM sees the time as ripe to make his move and force an election.

All sorts of scenarios are being tossed around by strategists and party insiders. Anything and everything that could possibly help or hinder the party’s election chances are being examined. Correction, almost everything. Clearly something has been overlooked in Harper's quest for glory.

What has not been considered is a factor outside the control of Stephen Harper and his party. An intangible that has the potential to do some serious damage to the Conservatives in light of recent events, and one that has once again moved to the forefront with Wednesday’s announcement.

That uncontrollable and indefinable factor is none other than the outspoken Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador, Danny Williams.

It may sound a little odd that the Premier of one of Canada’s smallest and poorest provinces, one with only 7 federal seats, might somehow be able to throw a monkey wrench into the PM’s chances for re-election, but odd or not, the possibility exists and Stephen Harper is not giving that possiblity the attention it deserves. It's an oversight that could prove far more expensive than he knows.

Williams has already verbally attacked the PM over back peddling on equalization promises and for making unilateral changes to the bi-lateral Atlantic Accord agreement. At the time of those changes Williams complaints were easily brushed aside as those of a premier with limited political experience but my how times have changed.

Today the Premier is viewed in many parts of Canada as a bit of a giant killer, a leader who isn’t afraid to fight with anyone standing in the way of his province’s future. Simply put, he's a street fighter that Stephen Harper has just poked with a very big stick.

Williams has already told the people of Canada that the PM can’t be trusted to keep his word. He warned them that by breaking a written promise to Newfoundland and Labrador Harper proved he was not above doing the same thing to them. Now, with the Nova Scotia agreement in place, Harper has done just that.

The PM would have been better off if he had simply done an about face, for whatever "technical" reason, and honored the Atlantic Accord. At least then he could have claimed he was bound by a contract signed by the preceding Liberal government and that his hands were tied. Instead he has opted to do something he told the Country he would never do.

Whether you support the fight over equalization or not, yesterday’s agreement, with Nova Scotia, is clearly a new side deal for that province. When Harper brought down the equalization formula in March, the one that got him into this mess in the first place, he told the Canadian people there would be, “No more side deals”.

All Williams has to do now is lock and load for an attack that will surely resonate with Canadian voters. On Wednesday Stephen Harper provided the ammunition he needed and he also gained the scrappy Premier an even more emboldened ally in the form of the normally reserved Saskatchewan Premier, Lorne Calvert.

The Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador is often accused of picking fights for the sake of fighting but that’s a misperception that has come back to haunt several of his opponents. In reality he more often picks fights he feels he should, and can, win. Stephen Harper is aligned squarely in his crosshairs and Williams' finger is poised on the trigger.

Since first elected Williams took on former PM Paul Martin over the very same Atlantic Accord contract. He won.

He fought big oil over an improved royalty regime and a provincial equity position. Big oil closed up shop and moved away. A year and a half later they quietly returned and agreed to an enhanced royalty regime and the very equity position he wanted. He won.

Williams, while in his first term, took a hard line by legislating over 40,000 public sector employees back to work, laid off highway staff after shutting down a number of depots, sent the provincial oil industry association into hysterics by walking away from Hebron development talks and completely alienated two federal governments. This week he sought re-election from just over 300,000 voters, most of which were impacted in some way by his previous actions. He won in a landslide vicory with the largest percentage of popular vote in the province’s history.

Williams is now much more widely recognized across Canada than he was even a few short months ago. His exploits have led to a re-evaluation of oil royalties by the Alberta government. He has emboldened provinces like Saskatchewan - which is now tackling the federal government in court and threatening to campaign against Harper- and his fighting persona has even led some in Nova Scotia to jokingly muse about him leading their province as well.

When he walked out on meetings with Paul Martin and he proved he doesn’t pull his punches.

When he waved goodbye to oil companies, as they packed up and left the province over stalled negotiations, he proved he doesn’t pull his punches.

When he went on a media tour and took out full page ads across the Country criticizing Stephen Harper he proved he doesn’t pull his punches.

When he told the electorate in Newfoundland and Labrador to vote “ABC” (Anyone but Conservative) during the next federal election he proved he doesn’t pull his punches.

And when he won his second mandate on the day before Harper's Accord announcement, with a majority that even the first Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador and late father of Confederation, Joey Smallwood, would have been envious of, Williams greeted the crowds by saying,

"There's a message here, Steve. If you want to take me and my team on, you have to take on all the people of Newfoundland and Labrador."

Once again, he proved he doesn’t pull his punches.

Any federal election will naturally center on the issues and personalities directly involved but who really knows what kind of chaos one very determined premier can create when he puts his mind to it.

It’s one thing to force an election when you’re sporting minority level numbers but are in control of the agenda. It’s a completely different game when you're faced with an unknown and volotile variable like the Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Unfortunately for the PM he has no control over which issues the public ultimately decide to latch onto, especially when a wild card like Williams is waiting in the wings stockpiling his ammunition and patiently preparing to fire.

I don’t know about Stephen Harper, but if I were planning to go to the polls any time soon I’d sure as hell be looking for some way to neutralize the Williams factor first.

Editor's Note: As an aside, Both Harper and MacDonald claim this deal was in the works for months (and not just a quickly engineered election ploy) there may be some evidence to the contrary.

The announcement of this deal (also offered to Newfoundland and Labrador) was made on October 10th, but as late as October 5th someone at the department of finance in Ottawa was spending a little time investigating the numbers involved. Check out the following link to another article on my site a few days ago:

http://freenewfoundlandlabrador.blogspot.com/2007/10/atlantic-accord-revisited.html

Nova Scotia Signs Deal - Resolves Atlantic Accord Dispute

The Canadian Press is reporting that Harper has reach deal with Nova Scotia Premier Rodney MacDonald over offshore revenues.

Just in case anyone has trouble reading between the lines here's my humble analysis:

In essence Premier Rodney Macdonald sold out his province in order to help Stephen Harper win the next election and to protect the career of Federal MP (and Defence Minister) Peter MacKay.

The "deal" does nothing to address the fact that Harper promised to leave 100% of non-renewable resources out of the equalization formula and didn't.

The "deal" allows the province to either take part in the new equalization formula or keep the accord using the old and less valuable 2005 formula any time they choose. Essentially the same choice offered by Harper when he first left the accord in tatters but over a longer period.

The "deal" doesnt allow Nova Scotia to participate in the current equalization formula and keep the accord, even though the accord clearly states that is what should be happening.

The only value of this "deal" for Nova Scotia may be in finally getting some kind of settlement on royalties already owed by Ottawa for decades but never actually paid. No doubt it won't be the full amount owing however so whether that's actually a plus is questionable.

The timing of this announcement is interesting as well, coming the day after a big election in NL, on the day Ontario is at the polls, within a day or so of an election in SK and while the House of Commons is not sitting. It almost seems as if the PM wanted this to slip through without anyone paying too much attention to it. It didn't work.