Canada, where democracy comes to die

If Stephen Harper used his powers for good instead of evil can you imagine the utopia we might all live in?

Can you imagine what might happen if the Prime Minister spent even a faction of the time addressing the real issues of the Country that he now devotes to his personal political ambitions.

Canada is suffering and will continue to suffer for some time to come but instead of doing anything about it Mr. Harper, in what can only be described as a cold, calculating and heartless political game, has decided to use this opportunity as an excuse to choke off funding to his political adversaries and strengthen his grip on power.

As a result, instead of our elected officials spending their time addressing the real problems facing Canada they are now battling for their political survival while Mr. Harper masterminds his attack to its inevitably successful conclusion: The destruction of all opposition to his rule.

911 was the crisis that gave the Bush administration the excuse they needed to move forward with a pre-planned war in Iraq and to oversee the removal of civil liberties and freedoms through the “Patriot Act”. The Harper government learned much from the U.S. Republican Party. So much that one might suspect Dick Cheney himself of working in the Conservative war room these days.

Thanks to the current financial crisis Stephen Harper now has the 911 he needs to move his political agenda forward.

For many voters the cutting of federal subsidies for political parties might seem reasonable. In fact I agree that it might even be the right thing to do, if handled properly, but doing it under the guise of defending the economy and without giving reasonable notice to the affected parties is nothing more than an opportunistic attack on democracy itself.

The halting of the $1.95 per vote federal subsidy for parties will save taxpayers about 27 million dollars but that’s a drop in the bucket in a multi-billion dollar economy.

The cut itself might not have much of a financial impact but doing it this soon after an expensive election, without warning and without giving the opposition parties a transition period that would allow them to adjust and evolve is like dropping an atomic bomb on your enemies.

This cut will all but silence political opposition in Canada for years to come and the only people who want to do that are within the Conservative Party of Canada.

These cuts will essentially destroy the ability of the Liberals, NDP, Bloc and Greens to wage any kind of campaign in the foreseeable future. In fact it might even lead to the total collapse and disappearance of one or more of the parties and almost certainly prevent new political parties from ever forming.

Some analysts have referred to the Harper move as a gutsy “roll of the dice” but I disagree. In fact, just he opposite is true. This comes across to me as the act of an intelligent though gutless individual who doesn’t have the intestinal fortitude to face his opponents head on.

No matter how many times I run the possible outcomes through my feeble mind I can’t find a single scenario that would see this backfire on the Conservative party. I can, on the other hand, find many that will be disastrous to their opponents and to democracy itself.

If one of the opposition parties decides to vote in favor of this action, or even to sit out some members so it can “passively” get through the House, it will mean that several of the opposition parties will find themselves teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, if not pushed over the edge, by losing between 60% and 80% of their funding.

This might not worry some voters who think the mainstream parties should raise their own money, but consider if you will that cutting off this funding will almost guarantee that small “grassroots” parties just starting up and hoping to bring a fresh new voice to Canadian politics will be crushed into silence before they can even get out of the starting gate.

It will also mean that only those with deep pockets can take part in the political debate of the federation and that’s a reality that should concern everyone.

In this scenario the Harper Conservatives are the only winners.

If, on the other hand, the opposition parties decide to topple the Conservative government they have two options before them.

The first is forcing another election. An election Canadian’s don’t want and the opposition parties can’t afford just 5 weeks after the polls closed on the last campaign.

The only party in the financial position to fight another election today is the Conservative party.

With the opposition parties nearly broke and because the Conservatives will be able to claim their adversaries forced an election because they felt “entitled to their entitlements” Mr. Harper will surely walk away with a majority.

At the end of the day, with the opposition parties even more in debt and their coffers emptier than they are now, Mr. Harper will simply re-introduce the funding cut and totally wipe his opponents off the political map.

In this scenario the Harper Conservatives are the only winners.

A third option is for the opposition parties to topple the government and form some sort of loose coalition to lead the federation.

This move will allow Mr. Harper to sit in opposition while his opponents are thrust into governing at a time when the economy is collapsing, job losses are growing, businesses are shutting their doors and deficits are mounting.

This scenario will see the fallout of Canada’s economic woes rest not on Conservative shoulders but squarely on the shoulders of the Liberals, NDP and Bloc equally. The Harper Conservatives meanwhile will be free to attack from the opposition benches while never getting the least bit sullied by the economic mess.

After a year (at best) of taking a political beating any coalition will likely fall apart, Canadians will end up back at the polls and Mr. Harper will be free to bill himself as a knight riding to the rescue on a shining white horse to claim a majority victory. (At which time he will once again simply re-introduce the election funding cut and strangle his indebted adversaries to death).

In this scenario the Harper Conservatives are the only winners.

It may be a brilliant political move but unfortunately the people who will suffer the most are the ones who have the least to gain from all this political wrangling, but everything to lose, the voters.

They are also, by the way, the last thing anyone in Ottawa is thinking about these days.

Once the political intrigue is over on Parliament Hill the economy will still be in the toilet and the smaller provinces or regions at the edges of the federation will still be neglected, abused and forgotten. As an added bonus however, any hope of nurturing a new or different political perspective in Canada will be dead once and for all and the Conservatives will have achieved their ambition of ruling with an unquestioned iron fist for many years to come.

Welcome to Canada, where democracy comes to die.

Newfoundland and Labrador's Economic Roller Coaster

What a difference a month can make.

Earlier this month Newfoundland and Labrador premier, Danny Williams, announced to the entire Country that “have” status was a reality in his province, even going so far as to plan a celebration of the fact in March of 2009.

Now, long before the party begins it could already be over and the tide may have turned in the other direction.

Because of the turnaround cycle for calculating which provinces will or will not receive equalization, Newfoundland and Labrador will likely remain a “have” province, at least on paper, this year and next, but that label could be worth about as much as a beach front lot in New Orleans if the current trends continue.

Don’t get your party hats and noise makers ready just yet folks there’s a storm on the horizon.

The coffers of the Newfoundland and Labrador government will not be as flush with cash next year as the Williams government had hoped when the premier announced the province’s new status.

The reasons are varied, but one of the biggest has to do with the diversity of the Newfoundland and Labrador economy, or should I say the lack of diversity.

In the past decade or so the province has become more and more reliant on a flood of petro-dollars, petro-dollars that now account for about a third of all provincial revenues.

Since Williams’ “have” status announcement world oil prices, which reached nearly $150.00 a barrel earlier this year, have plummeted to the $50.00 mark, shedding nearly two thirds of their value and putting a major dent in provincial revenues.

As if this wasn’t bad enough, adding to problem for Newfoundland and Labrador is the announcement this week that production on the Hibernia, White Rose and Terra Nova oil fields will be shut down for several weeks in 2009 to accommodate maintenance and upgrade efforts.

During the summer of 2009 production at the 130,000 barrel per day Terra Nova and 110,000 per day White Rose fields will be shut down for a period of 35 days each.

The Hibernia field, which produces in the area of 150,000 barrels per day, will shut down for 21 days.

The combined impact of these closures will see a reduction in annual production of approximately 12 million barrels of oil and a serious drop in the provincial royalty revenues to go right along with it.

Nations around the world are entering a recession the likes of which has not been seen in many years, if it’s ever been seen before (the jury is still out on the severity of the situation).

One thing is certain, the current downturn has resulted in a dwindling demand for all natural resources, not just oil but also iron ore, nickel and forest products as well. This has led to a much lower value for those commodities and another drop in potential provincial revenues.

Adding to these concerns are reports that yet another component of the Newfoundland and Labrador economy is shedding value.

For years millions of dollars have been flowing into the Newfoundland and Labrador economy in the form of Fort Mac pay cheques but that revenue stream is taking a hit as well.

Many residents who have been forced to leave their homes to work out west have retained their residences here and continued to pay taxes and spend much of their income in the province, boosting the retail sector and housing markets.

Now, with the price of oil declining, even the once invincible Fort Mac is beginning to stagger a little. New projects and expansions have been put on hold and layoffs out west are being reported more and more each day.

With a provincial unemployment rate already well over 13%, this most recent economic “perfect storm” to hit our shores has left the outlook for Canada’s newest “have” province a lot less bright today than it was just a month ago.

It’s been said before, and it may be easier said than done, but I sincerely hope this bump in the road (perhaps the understatement of the year) finally makes federal, provincial and municipal governments, along with the private sector, understand that we need to diversify our economy.

Those petro-dollars and other resource revenues the province has been enjoying for so long can be as much of a curse as they are a blessing and they truly won’t last forever.

The terms “have” and “have not” are best left to accountants. When it comes to the impending reality of even higher unemployment, lost homes and lineups at food banks those words mean absolutely nothing.

Regardless of whether the global economic meltdown turns out to be a prolonged and painful one or merely a blip on the radar, what matters most is the ability of the people living here to find a job and put food on the table.

It’s only by diversifying the economy and becoming less and less dependent on the volatile pricing of natural resources, be it oil, minerals, timber or even fish, that Newfoundland and Labrador can ever hope to become a true “have” province in every sense of the word.

It’s not that difficult to understand when you really think about it. Even as children most of us heard the old adage “you don’t put all your eggs in one basket”.

I only hope that today’s political and business leaders finally see the wisdom in those words.

Throne Speech a Triumph of Political Double Speak

It never ceases to amaze me how easily political leaders can talk from both sides of their mouth at the same time. It must be genetic or something.

During last week’s throne speech the Harper government made a point of telling the nation how important it was that Ottawa find innovative ways of securing Canada’s energy future, tackling climate change and building the economy.

That’s what the speech said but what it really meant was: “The Harper government will find innovative ways to secure our political future, pretend we are tackling climate change and build voter support.”

In that speech the government of Canada specifically said it would accomplish it’s publicly stated objectives by supporting nuclear energy projects and by developing the natural gas potential of the North, including the building a natural gas pipeline.

According to the Prime Minister, “Energy is vitally important to our country…The development of our rich energy resources is an important source of wealth and Canadian jobs…Our Government has committed to reducing Canada’s total greenhouse gas emissions by 20 percent by 2020.”

Sounds great doesn’t it?

Sure it does but anyone living on the East Coast of Canada (the REAL East Coast of Canada) can tell you Harper's motives are not what the Prime Minister says they are.

The people of the Atlantic Provinces have suspected for decades that somewhere in Ottawa there is a map that depicts the Country as Ottawa truly sees it, with the border ending at Quebec.

Atlantic Canadians have been unwavering in their disgust each time they have been forced to bend to the will of Ontario, Quebec and more recently, oil rich Alberta.

It’s gotten to a point where the average citizen in Newfoundland and Labrador simply shakes their head and walks away knowingly when a politician announces anything that’s supposedly good for “Canada”.

The most recent throne speech and government actions have done nothing to change this reality.
A few years ago Stephen Harper, upon catching a glimpse of the attitude adopted by long time Atlantic residents, referred to the region as having a “culture of defeat”.

Personally I don’t see it that way at all. What I see is a people that have come to understand that in Canada the cards are forever stacked against them.

When Ontario, Quebec or Alberta strives to accomplish their objectives in Canada they usually win.

When Atlantic Canada strives to accomplish its objectives in Canada, Ontario, Quebec and increasingly Alberta, usually win.

In fact, with successive minority governments constantly on election watch the task of pandering to the big three has become an art form.

No matter the political party or the issue of the day, Quebec is still Quebec, Ontario, even as a have not province, is still Ontario and Alberta has become the newest member of Canada’s political elite.

In reality the desire to protect the environment, provide secure energy and create jobs in the North are little more than fluff for public consumption.

The truth is that massive quantities of natural gas are needed to keep one of the most environmentally destructive projects on the planet, the Alberta tar sands, humming along smoothly. Without it they would grind to a stand still.

Score one for Alberta.

On the nuclear front, yes nuclear power is cleaner than coal or oil generation, but there are other options out there, including wind, solar and good old fashioned hydro.

An example of this is the power potential of the Lower Churchill River in Labrador.

For decades Newfoundland and Labrador has been fighting an uphill battle to develop the massive energy potential of the Lower Churchill River. The project is in the planning stages but not one word was mentioned in the speech from the throne about hydro power in general or the Labrador project in particular, a project that has the potential to create thousands of jobs while providing clean dependable and low cost energy.

If at this point you are asking yourself “why wouldn’t the government support this project?” then you might want to go back and read the first few paragraphs over again.

It’s Canadian politics 101.

Forget the fact that Nova Scotia and New Brunswick need and desperately want the clean power this project would supply (I say forget those two provinces because, once again they are in Atlantic Canada and well…I’ve already shown that they just don’t matter to Ottawa).

Putting Atlantic Canada’s concerns aside, politically important Ontario has also expressed an interest in Lower Churchill power so shouldn't that mean it will move forward?

No.

It doesn't matter because another politically important province, Quebec, doesn’t want the project to move forward unless they can profit from it.

Even though the Harper government has the ability to assist with the development of the Lower Churchill, through loan guarantees or other forms of federal assistance, they won’t do it.

The Harper government has also walked away from its plans for the “East/West power grid” we all heard so much about a couple of years ago. A project once touted as “a nation building exercise to rival the building of the continental railway”.

What was hailed as critical to Canada’s energy future such a short time ago has now been abandoned.

Why?

You see developing the East/West Energy Grid or supporting the Lower Churchill hydro project would:

A) Require a part of the grid to pass through Quebec which might upset some seperatists; and
B) Mean Newfoundland and Labrador could reach waiting markets with their clean energy without having to hand over most of the profits to, you guessed it, Quebec.

Score 1 for Quebec.

But hold on you might say “doesn’t that mean Ontario won’t get the clean power it needs”?

“Doesn’t it mean that by pandering to Quebec and denying Ontario this power Mr. Harper has hurt himself politically?”

Not so.

I don’t know anyone who has ever said Stephen Harper was politically stupid and I’m not about to be the first.

In a brilliant move intended to head off any political fallout (while perhaps trading it for the nuclear kind) the Harper government will appease the voters of Ontario by assisting that province in moving forward with building more nuclear capacity.

Yes, the public may have a lower opinion of nuclear, it may be more dangerous and it may even be more expensive for consumers than hydro, but in political circles it has two far more important things going for it.

Unlike the Lower Churchill development, which would create thousands of well paying jobs in the region of Canada with the highest unemployment rate, nuclear will create jobs in vote rich Ontario and it doesn’t tick off vote rich Quebec.

Score one each for Ontario and for Quebec on that one.

So, to recap, the Harper government plans to improve Canada’s energy supply, create jobs and protect the environment how?

By:

Constructing an environmentally risky and potentially insecure gas pipeline across Canada’s North;

Using somewhat clean natural gas to extract extremely dirty and highly polluting tar sands oil in Alberta;

Building nuclear reactors in Ontario (no word yet on where the waste will end up but somebody is probably scouting locations down East); and

They’ll do it all while ignoring Newfoundland and Labrador’s efforts to develop the largest untapped hydro electric reserve in North America. A clean energy project capable of lighting well over a million homes across Canada and creating thousands of well paid jobs in Canada’s highest unemployment region.

Score 0 for Atlantic Canada.