Election 2006 – A Newfoundland and Labrador Perspective

This week’s slim minority win by Stephen Harper’s Conservatives is the topic of debate for political junkies from coast to coast these days. Some like it while others don’t. The reasons are simple. Mr. Harper’s slender mandate will likely make it difficult for him to implement many of his party’s policies in the House of Commons. For truly devout Conservatives this is no doubt a cross to bear while for many other Canadians, still concerned with the man and the party itself, it may have been the best possible outcome.

In the current landscape Mr. Harper is forced to build consensus if he wishes to prove himself and further the Conservative cause. In order to accomplish this he has no choice but to walk straight down the middle of the road. His government will be incapable of passing any ultra right wing legislation and will even be prevented from drifting too far to the left in order to appease the NDP since they don’t have enough of a presence to prop him up on their own.

Some pundits are calling this a “Show me” mandate. A situation where the Conservatives are being given a chance to prove that they are not really the redneck truck driving radicals they’ve been painted as by the Liberal party while also giving them the opportunity to prove themselves as a viable alternative. In the U.S. Mr. Harper would likely be referred to as a “lame duck”, a descriptor that’s not far off base, but that doesn’t mean valuable legislation can’t be developed and implemented during his mandate, only that it be acceptable to a majority in the House.

The success of this Parliament will be predicated on Mr. Harper remembering that even though he is leading a minority government, none of the other parties want another election any time soon. By using that reality to build alliances he may be able pass many of the policy changes already identified in his election platform, as long as they don’t force the opposition to hold its collective noses. Fortunately for the all of the Provinces and in particular for Newfoundland and Labrador, there are a number of policies and election promises that fit that bill.

One such change in policy is the removal of non-renewable resources from the equalization formula. Although the Liberal government has refused to do this in the past and even fought for nearly a year with NS & NL over offshore revenues (the details of which included an exclusion from equalization), all parties would likely be committing political suicide if they were to deny this money to the provinces by voting against it in the House. Nobody, with the exception of Paul Martin, denies that a true fiscal imbalance really does exist between Ottawa and the Provinces and anyone who were to stand in the way of legislation aimed at easing this problem may not be well received back home.

The Conservative platform has identified 57 separate initiatives to ensure a cleaner and more accountable government, initiatives such as increasing the powers of the Auditor General and whistle blower protection. In light of the scandals that have come to light over the past year or so and due to the fact that this entire election was based on the premise that Liberal corruption denied them the right to govern, it’s going to be difficult for any party to oppose this type of legislation and expect to get away with it.

From a day to day operational perspective the Conservatives should have no problem keeping their promises to re-open the weather office in Gander, cost share the completion of the Trans Labrador Highway and station 650 troops at the air base at 5 Wing Goose. The only question is if they still want to do all three. These promises addressed supposedly key issues 2 separate districts that have long been a major problem for the province. At the end of the day however the same voters who fought so long and hard over these issues still saw fit to elect Liberal members in those districts even after the Liberal leadership refused to make any solid commitments on the issues. Hopefully Mr. Harper either isn’t a person to hold grudges or has a very short memory.

Some of the lesser talked about nuances of this election as they relate to Newfoundland and Labrador are not so much the result of a Harper win as they are a Liberal loss. One such reality is that with that loss and the imminent retirement of Paul Martin himself, a verbal threat that was fired at the province’s future can no longer be enforced by that government. Many people in the province will no doubt recall the words of top Liberal advisor and Spin Doctor Scott Reid, who stated publicly during Atlantic Accord negotiations that, “the province will pay for this”. Mr. Reid is now advising the opposition rather than the government and upon the retirement of Mr. Martin the question of how much influence his close confidant will really have is questionable.

Another nuance that may bring a smile to the more vindictive among us is the defeat of Deputy Prime Minister Ann Mclellan. Over the past few months a large number of people in the province have been fighting for a stay of deportation in the case of an immigrant family from Israel. Ms. Mclellan was contacted directly on the issue several times in an effort to help the family. With one stroke of her pen she could have delayed the order long enough to allow the family to appeal their case. She did not. There are those in the province who, while they may not have been squarely behind the movement to protect this family, have to admit that it spoke volumes about the character of Ms. Mclellan that she didn’t even bother to respond directly to those involved. Instead her response was supplied verbally as a second hand message from local MP Bill Matthews.

Ms Mclellan’s departure from the political scene will not bring tears to the eyes of anyone in Newfoundland and Labrador.

So what’s next for this newly minted government? Supposedly over the coming days Mr. Harper will begin to form his cabinet in preparation for the next session of the House. The big question on the minds of many Newfoundlanders and Labradoreans is what that new cabinet will look like. No doubt there will be a strong western representation but he will need to appease the other regions as well, especially Quebec. With this province sending three Conservative representatives to Ottawa, two of whom are very influential and committed party pillars, the expectation is that one of them will be offered a major portfolio while another will likely play a major role outside cabinet itself.

The current thinking is that perhaps MP Loyola Hearn will be offered the post of Fisheries Minister. Time will tell, but such a move would no doubt be a welcome change from Liberal Geoff Regan who many in the province consider nothing more than a pencil pusher with no understanding of the portfolio. Mr. Hearn on the other hand is well known in the province for his stance on custodial management along with other fisheries issues and his appointment to this portfolio would send a strong message on the Conservative purported commitment to rebuilding and protecting this long suffering industry.

No doubt there is a lot to digest about the somewhat unexpected outcome of Monday’s election but no matter what anyone says, there is one thing of which there is no doubt. Both from a Provincial and National perspective the next session of parliament will be one to watch. The parties and policies may have changed but the realities of political maneuvering within the confines of a minority government remain the same. Do what you can, survive as long as you can and don’t get caught on the wrong side of an issue. It remains to be seen how well that approach will work for Canada’s newest Prime Minister.