Federal Election Update and Analysis

With exactly one week left until we head to the polls it might be a good time to review the current status of the parties, to take a look at some key promises they’ve made and review their stance on Atlantic Canadian issues.

According to the latest polls, the Conservative party is enjoying a lead of between 8% and 13% nationally, however in vote rich Ontario the story is quite different. In that area the Liberal party is well in the lead and appears to be holding strong.

A poll released just today indicates that currently 55% of Canadians would be happy with Stephen Harper as the next Prime Minister. Some analysts believe that unless Harper, or another key member of his party, suffers a meltdown and really says something stupid, the election is all but won. Whether or not it will be a majority or minority is the big question this week.

A breakdown of some of the key promises made by the leaders shows that while each has come up with some good ideas and some not so good ones, it seems that the Conservative party seized the advantage and never let go after their proposed GST cut early in the campaign, a move that has hit home with many average Canadians, even though some analysts don’t agree with the approach.

Although officially there are 5 major parties involved in this election (Liberal, Conservative, NDP, Bloc and Green), the reality at this point is that it’s a two horse race and as such I’ve decided to simply compare the two top parties here.

There is no point comparing the bloc to the other parties nationally since they are only a factor in one province. It also wouldn’t be fair at this point in the game to compare the promises of the NDP or Green parties since even they are fully aware that they aren’t going to win and as such they would never be held accountable for their promises. This is not the case with the Liberals and Conservatives.

Here are a few of the key issues that appear to be of importance in this election and each party’s stance for comparison purposes. Each item is followed by my own personal ratings of the policy (should it were ever to be implemented that is):

Liberal – Despite what the other parties say, their platform has been cost out and is fiscally achievable:

Cuts to personal income tax – A plus (This would stimulate savings and investment by providing more expendable income for many Canadians)

National child care plan – B minus (A pretty good idea, but how does the creation of child care centers really help mom and pop in highly rural areas, areas which make up a big part of this Country where day care centers don’t and won’t exist. People in these areas will still need to rely on baby sitters and family members to help and this plan does nothing for them);

Health Care – C plus (Promises of a continued reduction in wait times through staying the course with regard to the health care deal signed with the provinces would help but it is not enough. The real issue is the lack of experienced specialists and health care providers resulting in delays of diagnosis, not so much in the actual treatment of the illness. Often patients must wait months for a diagnosis and it is not until after this point that the measurement of wait times begins. This situation is largely due to the fact that cuts to health care of the years have setup a scenario where it is difficult for some regions to afford to attract or retain personnel.)

Gun registry – Status Quo/No Change – F (Long a sore spot with many Canadians this fiasco is costing hundreds of millions and has no real value. The Liberal party would leave it in place.)

Violent Crime - Banning hand guns – D minus (Personally I don’t care if every hand gun in the country is banned, but doing so isn’t going to solve gun violence. Criminals who want guns will get guns. The banning of hand guns is a futile attempt to stem the tide of violence and the implementation of the program will probably end up as another gun registry fiasco costing billions.);

Liberal promises directly important to Atlantic Canada

5 Wing Goose Bay – D minus (Even though it has been a major issue in Labrador, no real solution has been offered for the survival of the armed forces base at 5 Wing Goose Bay, just more empty dollars but no military presence.);

Fisheries issues, joint management and custodial management – F (No support for joint management of fisheries or custodial management outside the 200 mile limit. More talk about increasing money for science but this rings hollow after the Liberal government cut science funding during the last term.);

Re-instatement of the Gander weather centre – D minus (No promise to re-instate weather forecasting in Gander, even though over 100,000 voters in the province signed a petition to have this done and records indicate a potentially dangerous or even deadly lack of accuracy in current forecasts from outside the province. The Liberal party recently tried to confuse the issue by promising to re-open the office but this is not a re-instatement. Instead it would only bring back a handful of resources and leave the office a shadow of its former self. They also offered to make Newfoundland a centerfor ice studies but this is a separate issue which the party has tried to mix up with the weather office issue.);

Overall ranking C minus


Conservative – Despite what the other parties say, their platform has been cost out and is fiscally achievable:

Cuts to GST – B (As most financial analysts agree, a personal income tax cut would do more to stimulate investment and savings, but this one retains a somewhat high mark because it puts money back into everyone’s pocket, even those who pay no income tax, and seems to be a hit with the general public);

National child care plan – B minus (A pretty good idea, giving 100 per month for each small child directly to the parents and building some child care spaces, although less than the Liberal plan. It works for me because the money would be of use to people in rural areas where day care spaces would not exist and therefore gives them an option. Over all, both the Liberal and Conservative plans have merit and problems and as a result I’ve scored them equally);

Health Care – C (The promise to guarantee wait times is one that many people can appreciate but how truly feasible is it? The solution may require a loosening up of rules around who provides health care and this will have some screaming about a two tiered system. The reality is that if certain diagnostic services (such as MRI, CT scans, bone scans, etc.) were available through independent providers, then those who could afford the fees involved would choose this option rather than waiting six months or a year for testing. This would speed up the process and lessen the strain on the publicly funded system allowing others to move through more quickly. Not really a bad thing, however it could result in these private companies paying higher salaries than the public system and stealing away already under available resources. I give the Liberal party a very slight edge in this area);

Gun Registry – Promised to abolish the gun registry – A plus (This move alone will make hundreds of millions available for other programs and policies.);

Violent Crime – A minus (The Conservatives have promised tougher sentences for violent criminals and those using weapons. The Conservatives win this battle. Canadians are tired of what they see as a justice system that is soft on criminals. There are studies that show that stiffer sentences don’t really deter criminals, but neither will the banning of hand guns outright. The up side to the Conservative approach is that at least those who would use guns will be off the streets longer. The plan is soft on the root causes of violent crime such as poor economic background, lack of education and drug use.);

Conservative promises directly important to Atlantic Canada

5 Wing Goose Bay – A ( The Conservatives appear to have a plan for the base that is part and parcel of their overall military improvement plan. They has promised multiple times to station a contingent of Canadian forces (rapid response team) at 5 Wing Goose Bay, along with continuing to promote the base internationally as a training area. The Conservatives have pledged to grow the military and as most Canadians are aware, a large proportion of forces personnel traditionally hail from Atlantic Canada. This would result in a growth in career opportunities while enhancing Canada’s military capabilities. In 1945 Canada had the fourth most powerful military in the world. Today a quick check of rankings showing the top 30 does not even list Canada.

Fisheries issues, joint management and custodial management – C plus (Harper has agreed to discuss increased involvement of provinces in fisheries science and management, although this does not translate into a direct promise on the subject. He has also come out in support of working toward custodial management outside the 200 mile limit, but again that is not the same as saying it will happen. An interesting side note to this is that in reality there is no point enacting custodial management unless you have the military and coastguard capability to enforce it, supposedly a capability that an enhanced military would be able to provide.

Re-instatement of the Gander weather centre – A plus (A clear commitment has been given to re-instate the Gander weather office to its original level and Harper has gone so far as to actually sign the public petition on the issue)

Overall ranking B plus

The reality is that both parties have some issues with their policies and platforms and the only party that has pretty much agreed to everything Atlantic Canadians are looking for is the NDP, but as mentioned, they would not be expected to deliver on those promises so it doesn’t really cost them anything to make the offer.

Overall it would seem that the Conservative party has the edge in policy from Atlantic Canada’s perspective and perhaps from the perspective of other Canadians, outside Ontario, which is exactly what the most recent polls seem to be telling us. The problem at this point is that all of the parties are currently so heavily involved in mud slinging that most people probably can’t even recall what each team is offering.

A quick check of the web sites for the Liberals, Conservatives and even the NDP reveals the fact that the attacks on their opponents have taken precedence over promoting their own policies and objectives. Perhaps at this point they're all a little afraid that someone might really take notice of their weak points and as such they're happier to cover up those weaknesses with the mud that’s flying around so freely.

It's odd as well that the old party loyalties and family histories are still playing such a role in Newfoundland and Labrador even in this day and age. Dispite the national trend and some attractive promises by the Conservative party for the province , Newfoundland and Labrador appears to be opting for the status quo. Current polls have it at 2 conservative seats and 4 Liberal seats, only one is up in the air. With John Efford's shameful departure from the political scene late last year, the Avalon could go either way. The Conseravative candidate, Fabian Manning is a well known and well liked political figure in the area, but the area itself is historically a Liberal stronghold. The polls have that one too close to call at this point so it looks like we won't know until election night.