Post Election Analysis - History in the Making

Anyone who voted for the first time in Election 2011 certainly found an opportune time to exercise their democratic right.

With the election now in the books the nation is free to ponder the significance (or lack thereof) of the outcome. No matter how you slice it, this is one election that’s bound to be the talk of pundits, political science majors and arm chair politicians for decades to come.

It’s often said that history is written by the victors, but exactly what history says about Canada’s forty-first federal election remains to be seen. The conundrum this time around is how we define who the victors actually are. Different perspectives may produce different findings and the answer may not fully be understood for generations.

Clearly the Harper Conservatives are victorious. After years of planning, strategizing, campaigning (yes, years of campaigning) cajoling and practically begging the people of Canada Mr. Harper finally has the one thing he’s wanted since first elected, a majority. Never the less, for his detractors, this outcome could be seen as a tainted victory based on his limited level of cross-Canada support, his losses in Quebec and the growth of support for the center/left federalist parties (Liberal/NDP combined) after the collapse of the Bloc.

Following the election Mr. Harper, speaking to a partisan crowd, proudly said that the people of Canada had made their decision. Some might argue that with only 40% of voters supporting the Conservative party, in reality the nation actually backed into a Conservative majority accidentally rather than truly choosing it. Tomato / tomato.

Liberal leader, Michael Ignatieff, promoted this election as necessary to save democracy itself. He may have been fighting the wrong opponent in Mr. Harper. Perhaps the real opponent to democracy in Canada is not the Conservatives, who merely take political advantage of the rules, but Elections Canada who refuse to see that the system isn’t working in its current form.

Elections as they exist today in Canada work fine when you have a two party system. They don’t serve democracy very well at all when 3 or 4 parties are in play.

The evidence speaks for itself. If asked, most Canadians would say that democracy is when a majority of the people choose a government. Not so in Canada where a party, any party, can form a majority government when over half the population doesn’t support them.

As far as democracy is concerned it was indeed at stake in this election and, no matter who came out ahead in the seat count, we all lost on that front. In essence the Harper majority came as a result of unintentional vote splits between the NDP and Liberals in Ontario. In the end these meant a gain of 20 Ontario seats, a dozen more than the 155 needed to claim a majority.

As Thomas Jefferson quite rightly said, “The government you elect is the government you deserve”. We can read into Mr. Jefferson’s statement what we will.

Democracy itself aside, although the night clearly saw a victory for Stephen Harper, many elections have been won in the past and many will be won in the future by various parties. By itself there’s nothing of historic value to the win. Perhaps what the Harper government does with its majority will change the political landscape over time but the win itself is a less than historic event outside Conservative circles. Other outcomes are far more interesting from the historic perspective.

Nobody can argue that the rise of the NDP to official opposition status with more than 100 seats in Parliament is much more noteworthy in the grand scheme of things.

This sudden shift of support says a lot about the now massive gulf between the Right and Left in Canada as a result of the tactics employed by Conservatives over the past several years. It’s a case where 60% of voters in Canada have decided a change is in order. Most of that 60%, especially in Quebec, shrugged off the shackles of conformity and walked through a previously untested Orange door in an attempt to unseat what many see, rightly or wrongly, as a government that’s far too “Republican” for their liking.

Aside from the hard left tilt taken by Canadians, the historic impact of the NDP taking on the official opposition role are not to be ignored. This position will afford them a great deal of benefits they’ve long been denied. Their elevated status will mean an increased budget and far more media attention than the party has ever been able to capture in the past. The official opposition after all has long been considered a “government in waiting”.

In short, this election has catapulted the NDP onto the political stage like never before and, depending on what the party does with their new found status it might, over time, change Canadian politics in unforeseen ways.

If nothing else, the rise of the NDP has dealt massive blow to the aspirations of the Bloc Quebecois, leaving the nation far more united than it’s been in decades. Even if that unity comes as a result of a deep seated dislike for the Harper government.

With a massive drop in their per vote election subsidy as a result of such poor showing in this election and with Mr. Harper’s plan, now that he has a majority, to abolish the vote subsidy (a key funding mechanism for the Bloc) entirely, this election could signal the demise of a political force that’s shaped politics in Canada for a generation.

The Bloc, with just 4 seats and after the resignation of Gilles Duceppe as their charismatic leader has a very uncertain future to be certain.

Just as Canadians might have accidentally backed into a Harper majority, Mr. Harper himself may well have accidentally helped ensure Canadian unity. If so, he accomplished this unintended result by engendering an anti-conservative movement in Quebec that grew far stronger than the deep seated yearning for Quebec nationalism/sovereignty itself.

You can add the Liberal party’s standing to that of the Bloc when questioning the future of organized party politics in Canada. The Liberal’s election results have similarly impacted their funding possibilities and cost them a leader. Going forward they may, from necessity, be forced to consider looking at options for uniting the Left, even at the expense of the historic party brand.

It’s enough to make me wonder what color you get when you combine red and orange.

Although seen by most as a small scale victory, the Green party must also be considered a winner in this election. With Elizabeth May having finally won a seat in the House of Commons the Green Party will have a voice on the national stage for the first time.

It could be argued that a single seat doesn’t mean much but with the environment a top priority for a growing number of voters and ever more important on the world stage, the timing of Ms. May’s entry into Parliament could have far more significance than many might think.

A potential resurgence of young voters and Canada’s penchant for backing the underdog, in addition to the environmental issue itself, could lead to Ms. May’s new found voice resonating with voters over the coming years.

Certainly her approach to politics and original ideas are refreshing. Time will tell if her election is just a blip or a harbinger of things to come, but what’s seen as a minor victory today might one day be recognized as the start of a green revolution in Canadian politics. Only time and the electorate will tell.

Any way you slice it this has been an election like none other Canada has seen. We live in interesting times and they may become a lot more interesting as the days unfold. Just don’t twitter that point to any of your friends until you've cleared it with Elections Canada. You wouldn’t want to break any antiquated laws would you?

Finally, since this is Web-Talk Newfoundland and Labrador, I’d be remiss if I failed to point out the direct impacts of this election on our fair province.

From the Provincial perspective, the clear message telegraphed from Newfoundland (if not Labrador) is that even without the force of will who is Danny Williams, ABC remains a reality. While the Labrador riding elected a Conservative MP, anyone who knows the situation on the ground could easily argue that this was more of a victory for a single man who is highly respected rather than a win for the party itself.

Clearly Newfoundland & Labrador remains less than fertile hunting grounds for the Harper brand of Conservatism and with Quebec rejecting the Conservative brand as well another point comes to the fore. Quebec and Newfoundland & Labrador have finally found something they can agree on, their utter dislike of Stephen Harper. Now that's historic!

On a more tangible front, the outcome couldn’t have been more interesting for the Province. Yes, we sent a clear message to the Conservatives that the people do not like Mr. Harper but by electing one Conservative MP it also ensures that the Harper government no longer has an excuse for not offering the cabinet position they’ve told everyone the province has denied itself by not electing someone on the government side.

In fact, with a member in the government caucus and with 2 representatives in the official opposition ranks as well as 4 Liberal members of Parliament, Newfoundland and Labrador has covered all the bases and positioned itself about as well as anyone could have hoped.

As an interesting side note, the message sent to Stephen Harper by the Newfoundland and Labrador electorate was accomplished in spite, rather than with the approval, of the Provincial PC government.

In an effort to shore up support for the federal Conservatives the Dunderdale government trotted out cabinet ministers and caucus members by the bus load. They even went so far as to insert themselves into the election by announcing more than $4 million in funding for one riding, announcing it on election day while the federal candidate was positioned front and center beside the provincial representatives at the media event. Thankfully the voters didn’t take a bite from that apple.

Whether or not the stunt has an impact on Dunderdale’s position going into the October provincial election is a story for another day.

Last but not least, and perhaps most important to some in the Province, is the fact that with a majority in hand, an NL Conservative MP in caucus and a clear rejection by Quebec voters as clear as the nose on his face, there can be no excuse for Mr. Harper to back out of his commitments on the Lower Churchill development.

Time will tell if he does or not.

Promises, No Promises and Broken Promises...

At the start of this election campaign Newfoundland and Labrador Premier, Kathy Dunderdale, sent letters to each of the three main party leaders, Stephen Harper, Michael Ignatieff and Jack Layton. The letters outlined some of the key issues for her Province.

All three leaders responded and the letters were released this week.

If you’re like most people you either don’t have the time, patience or dogged interest to read the responses provided. Fortunately I have no life so I’ve taken the fairly significant amount of time required to fully evaluate the responses and summarize the key results for you. (you can thank me later) :-)

That said there is no replacement for reading them yourself and making up your own mind on what the leaders have actually said, or perhaps as importantly, didn’t say.

The original letters sent by Premier Dunderdale as well as the responses are available here:

LETTERS

Here are my personal takeaways from the responses.

Fisheries Restructuring and Early Retirement:

Harper: No actual promises but says his is willing to talk with the Province going forward, blames other parties for killing the budget which he says would have provided a role for the Province’s in fisheries management. Would continue to support the seal harvest.

Ignatieff: Will work with province on license retirement, fleet rationalization, older worker retirement & retraining programs and assisting in transition of workers to new opportunities. He would also recognize adjacency in the fishery, historical attachment and economic maximization. Promises increased funding for fisheries management and better fisheries enforcement. Would continue to support the seal harvest.

Layton: Would ensure adequate funding is available for DFO. Would establish a Royal Commission to determine why, after 20 years of moratorium, there has been very limited fisheries recovery. Would support a cost shared retirement and license buyout, negotiate better tariff terms with other nations for seafood exports. Are committed to a revised fisheries act that would include the concepts of adjacency and historical attachment. Would continue to support the seal harvest.

Lower Churchill:

Harper: Projects like the Lower Churchill will receive a loan guarantee or other funding if they have national / regional significance are financially viable and lower greenhouse gas emissions.

Ignatieff: Would support a loan guarantee for the Lower Churchill development.

Layton: Would support a loan guarantee for the Lower Churchill development and would invest $375 million from the 3P fund to support construction of the Maritime subsea link.

Federal Transfers to the Provinces:

Harper: Would continue to provide 6% annual increase to provincial health care funding.

Ignatieff: Will continue to provide 6% annual increase to provincial health care funding and convene a first ministers meeting within 60 days of taking office to examine health care needs.

Layton: Will continue to provide 6% annual increase to health care funding and would seek guarantees from the provinces to ensure the integrity of the health care system. Would meet with provincial leaders to discuss health care concerns. Sees the need to provide federal transfers to the provinces on a basis that recognizes each province’s unique challenges.

Child Care Improvements:

Harper: Focus remains on providing incentives to parents with limited support ($250 million nationally) and tax credits for business to create child care spaces. Creation of 25,000 new spaces for each of the next 4 years, improvements to community infrastructure related to child care, creation of integrated community based child care options.

Ignatieff: Would dedicate $500 million to an Early Childhood Learning and Care fund in first year growing to $1 Billion by year 4 of a mandate.

Layton: Would work with provinces to develop a nationwide child care and early learning program.

Offshore Occupational Health and Safety:

Harper: Work with NL to honor the terms of recommendation 29 of the Wells Inquiry (create a separate offshore safety board). Will not commit to improvements in Search and Rescue response times and does not mention basing rescue helicopter in St. John’s region.

Ignatieff: Work with NL to honor the terms of recommendation 29 of the Wells Inquiry (create a separate offshore safety board). Would undertake a review of Search and Rescue response times with an objective of 15 – 20 response times across the industry.

Layton: Work with NL to honor the terms of recommendation 29 of the Wells Inquiry (create a separate offshore safety board). Would re-allocate defense budget dollars to ensure that Search and Rescue response times are brought to international standards (20 minutes) and will look at delays in after hours response times.

Providing 8.5% Hibernia Shares to Province:

Harper: Is open to selling shares to province at fair market values.

Ignatieff: Is open to selling shares to province, no specifics identified on cost or timing.

Layton: Recognizes that the federal government has more than recovered its investment in Hibernia and is willing to work with the province on transferring the shares. Will negotiate with the understanding that the province should be the primary beneficiary of offshore oil. No specifics on time/price.

Future of 5 Wing Goose Bay:

Harper: Will support marketing of the base to other nations for use, committed to contamination cleanup and infrastructure spending. Says he will increase operations but with no specifics.

Ignatieff: Designate 5 Wing as a staging point for Arctic sovereignty including coastguard activities, fisheries and surveillance patrols. Goose Bay would also stage pollution patrols and arctic training.

Layton: Says federal government should honor its commitments to 5 Wing. No specifics provided.

Federal Spending & Presence in Province (federal employment):

Harper: No commitment of anything new and no committment to live up to previous election promise to station a batallion there.

Ignatieff: Would treat provinces equitably. No specifics.

Layton: Recognizes the disproportionate number of federal jobs that have been taken out of the provinces and says that federal presence should be more equitable. Is committed to reversing policies that have led to lower federal presence.

Broadband Access:

Harper: Will work with all provinces to improve broadband and digital services. No specific commitments to NL.

Ignatieff: Identifies goal of 100% broadband access across Canada within 3 years. No specifics.

Layton: Supports Internet neutrality, would end throttling and committed to broadband across country. Would create broadband program financed by wireless spectrum auction revenues in partnership with private industry investment.

Correctional Services (New Prison to replace HMP):

Harper: Recognizes NL’s desire for a new prison to replace Her Majesties but makes no commitment. Simply restates previous statements about being tough on crime.

Ignatieff: Is against U.S. style prisons as planned by Conservatives but is willing to work with province to replace Her Majesties Prison. No specific commitment.

Layton: Would work with province to come to an acceptable financing arrangement on a replacement for Her Majesties prison as quickly as possible.

Well folks, that's my take on it. Remember, this is an election campaign so reader beware.

An election promise and $3.75 will get you a beer at the local pub.

Let’s Be Honest for Once

George Washington is remembered to have said, “I cannot tell a lie.” Since then no politician has been able to make the same claim without being guilty of telling one.

These days truth itself should be placed on an endangered species list.

It’s gotten to the point where the truth is coming under a constant attack from all sides.

Today its truth, not lies, that have become something to be avoided at all costs and it’s no longer just politicians who have a monopoly on the practice, we’ve all gotten into the act.

With that in mind Web Talk is proud, well at least mildly pleased, to present a hastily compiled:

Top 10 list of (politically incorrect) Comments You Won’t Find in the National Papers

Or

10 Rants For the Price of One

10 – I feel for Ontarians who are losing their jobs. Being from Newfoundland and Labrador I can sympathize with their plight and wish them the best. Having said that, I wouldn’t be human if some small part of me, deep in the back of my mind, didn’t feel like shouting the following from the roof tops:

“If Ontarians are really suffering from rising unemployment why don’t they stop their incessant whining about wanting more EI and do what they’ve been telling Newfoundlanders and Labradorians to do for decades, suck it up and move someplace where they can find a job. The rest of us can’t be expected to keep Ontarians living in a place where there’s no work so pack up and move on. By the way Ontario, your unemployment rate is still only about half of what it is in Newfoundland and Labrador so slag off.”

But I won’t say it. I really do care about the individuals being hurt in this recession, including in Ontario and I hope they work their way through this.

9 – North Atlantic Harp seals are not endangered. North Atlantic Harp seals are highly efficient and effective carnivores with big sharp ugly teeth. They are not cuddly little “ice bunnies”.

Activists say seals are not hunted for food so they shouldn’t be hunted at all. In reality it was anti-sealing activists who lobbied to destroy a once profitable market for seal meat and are now using the lack of one as an excuse to ban the hunt.

The seal herd is thriving, the meat tastes great (yes it’s still eaten across Newfoundland and Labrador) and the furs are warmer, softer and more beautiful than anything else you’ll ever wear.

Thanks to their screwed up view of the world animal rights activists will cause far more damage to the seals, the fish stocks those seals depend upon and the entire ecosystem in the region than the annual seal hunt ever did.

By the way, for anyone interested I’ve got a great seal flipper pie recipe I can send you, just let me know and I’ll get it right out to you.

8 – Yes the Alberta oil sands are without any shadow of a doubt a messy and destructive environmental catastrophe.

They are destroying the air, land and water, but droning on and on in a vain attempt to force oil companies into cutting emissions in an effort to meet Kyoto targets is the environmental equivalent of the misguided anti-sealing movement.

Those companies cannot and will not meet those targets without running themselves out of business and that isn’t going to happen. It would take a shutdown or at least a major scale down of most oil sands activity in order to meet those targets and simply put, neither Canada nor the U.S. can afford to do that no matter what it might mean for the environment.

Enough is enough. It’s time to tell the Kyoto zealots to go to hell (as should have been done with the seal protestors), find a sensible way to manage the problem, cut the grandstanding on all sides of the political arena and reach a compromise on this issue that will do the least harm to everyone and everything involved. If not then forget about it and move on.

7 – The future of Canada means absolutely nothing to Stephen Harper who is a right wing, egomaniacal, hillbilly, educated beyond his intelligence level. He is a man who would gladly sell his soul and those of his children, if he hasn’t done so already, for the one thing he craves above all else, absolute power and control.

Canada’s future also means nothing to Michael Ignatieff, who is a thinly veiled American decked out in Canadian clothing. A man who wants nothing more than to add the title “Canadian Prime Minister” to his scholarly C.V. so he can demand more for his book sales in the future.

Jack Layton, well, enough said about Jack. No point in kicking a dead horse, especially with so many animal rights activists around these days. It’s getting so you can’t swing a dead cat (or a live one) without hitting one of them.

6 – Stephen Harper claims to be defending Canada’s territory, as well as Newfoundland and Labrador interests, by not accepting a French claim for extended offshore territory. His position is pure and unadulterated crap.

All St. Pierre – Miquelon is looking for is a means to survive its economic challenges by extending its existing 200 mile corridor (away from Canada) to the edge of the Continental Shelf. This is no more or less than Canada itself plans to do under the U.N. Law of the Sea.

The small French islands should have a right to an extension of that little strip of territory and France is correct to demand it. Otherwise the islands will effectively be trapped inside Canadian waters with no free access to the open ocean once Canada makes its claim to an extended economic zone.

No matter what the Prime Minister says, this has nothing to do with protecting Canadian sovereignty or NL’s interests. It has everything to do with lucrative oil potential in the region.

5 – The Quebecois culture is no more distinct than that of Newfoundlanders & Labradorians. Period.

4 – Contrary to popular belief, Quebec is not benefiting from a one sided contract to purchase Churchill Falls power.

Neither Quebec nor Newfoundland and Labrador ever actually signed a legal contract.

Quebec committed fraud by using insider information and blackmail to get the signatures it wanted. Quebec has committed a criminal act and has been stealing billions of dollars from the people of Newfoundland and Labrador for decades. What’s more they’ve been doing it with the tacit acceptance of successive Federal and Newfoundland & Labrador governments, both of which refuse to take any decisive or clear action.

Personally I’d love to see the Province throw the damn switch at the generating station and turn off the lights right across the so called “Quebec Nation”.

3 – Canada is not a Country. It’s a group of individual provinces financially controlled, oppressed and blackmailed into subservience by a corrupt central regime.

Thanks to the lopsided political power wielded by Ontario and Quebec, Canada is nothing more than an excuse for ensuring the advancement of those two jurisdictions (upper and lower Canada) regardless of what that might mean for the rest of the population.

Calling Canada a real Country is an insult to honesty and intelligence on an epic scale.

2 – Brian Mulroney is corrupt and he is without a doubt guilty of all sorts of immoral if not illegal acts. Everybody knows it but nobody really gives a crap so let’s enjoy the death of his legacy, not to mention his squirming on the hot seat, and then move on.

1 - We are told that we have freedom of speech but that’s one of the most widely accepted lies out there.

Show me someone who has expressed their frustration at the political system by simply “saying” they would “like to see” something blown up and I’ll show you a person either under federal surveillance or actually in custody.

In fact, even this article has been self edited. Just try making a public statement about Brian Mulroney, as I did in the previous section, without qualifying it with a phrase like “if not illegal acts” and see how quickly you end up being sued.

Even if you forget the legal or civil methods of stifling our freedom of speech, the docile acceptance of so called political correctness we all subscribe to has done more to quiet the masses than any law ever could. Everyone is so afraid of being ostracized by their friends, neighbors and co-workers for being politically incorrect that nobody really says what’s on their mind anymore.

This top-ten list may not be as funny as some others but the truth seldom is.

In an effort to help fight censorship and political correctness Web Talk will, on occasion, tackle this subject just as it has today. Feel free to add your two cents but please remember, as much as it sucks, for our own protection even Web Talk must adhere to the same anti-free speech edicts as everyone else, so act accordingly (but don’t hesitate to push the envelope).