The Ultimate Political Escape Route - Saving Face

Fact: On Friday January 11 the Provincial and Territorial leaders will spend an afternoon with Stephen Harper, supposedly discussing the economy and the rising Canadian dollar.

Speculation: There are those who suspect the long standing battle over equalization will once again come to the fore when Danny Williams and the newly minted Premier of Saskatchewan enter the room.

Prediction: Forget about it.

This meeting will turn out exactly as it's billed, a chat about the economy and nothing more (at least from Newfoundland and Labrador's perspective).

At this point in time both Premier Williams and Prime Minister Harper are toning things down. They've both been very non-confrontational since meeting back in November and even though Williams gave Harper a deadline for resolution, one supposedly marked by this meeting, the subject will not be discussed.

A lot has already been said in the media over the past several month, the positions of each man is well known to the other and there is little for either man to gain, but much to lose, in turning up the heat at this time.

No doubt there is movement afoot behind the scenes to make the entire issue go away before the next federal election. Harper doesn't want a loose cannon crisscrossing the Country while on the hustings and it's doubtful Williams really want's to spend so much time taking on an anti-campaign.

With the rhetoric on low simmer and the issues having slipped from the national spotlight the opportunity is there for both men to "save face" and come out of this with a compromise they can both live with. That opportunity will disappear if the upcoming meeting ends in another blood bath.

At this point Williams knows he is not going to get the full 10 billion the Harper election promise would have provided. Harper knows Williams' public and internal party disturbances are not simply going to go away.

Whether you like or hate either man one thing nobody can argue is their intelligence and it is this intelligence that will lead to a solution before Canadians go to the polls.

The trick here is for Williams to make some limited gains (perhaps a loan guarantee on the lower churchill and some other serious funding for projects or infrastructure) and for Harper to appear not to have given in to the province's demands. The only question remaining is how they will accomplish these two goals and that's something most of us will come to suspect but may never truly know.

In the coming months there are likely to be some announcements or developments that involve the federal government and the province but they won't be publicly announced as "compensation for the wrongs committed by Ottawa". Such an announcement would prevent Mr. Harper from saving face and at this point saving face is far more important to him than the original issue itself.

Don't look for any fireworks at the First Minister's meeting this week but keep your eyes and ears sharply tuned in for a period of unexpected federal / provincial co-operation over major projects in the coming year.

It's Your Move Mr. Prime Minister

For those who have been following the ABC (Anyone But Conservative) campaign that Newfoundland and Labrador premier, Danny Williams, has been threatening to wage against Stephen Harper, the intrigue just got much more interesting.

Enter Sinclair Stevens, a name and face from the past who is still very much consumed with Canadian politics.

Some of our older readers may remember Mr. Stevens as a political dynamo in the original federal Progressive Conservative party back in the good old days, once even taking a run at the party leadership himself.

Ever since the merger between the old Alliance and PC parties however Stevens has had a major dislike for the entire organization and more specifically for its leader, Stephen Harper.

Today Mr. Stevens publicly stated that he has been planning the formation of a new "Progessive Canadian" party for some time and, get this, has been in discussions with premier Danny Williams on the subject since last May in an effort to shore up his support.

Williams, for his part, has denied making any promises of assistance to Stevens but has admitted to talking with him recently, an admission that must be flying like a lead balloon at 24 Sussex Drive tonight.

At the very least this potential "New" party and, factual or not, William's part in its development, should send a clear message to Stephen Harper that the ABC campaign is not simply a fantasy and that there are indeed ways the PM's political future can be put in jeopardy.

It's certainly something Harper and his advisors need to consider in light of Williams' pre-Christmas request that the PM find a way to "make up" for the failure to follow through on his equalization promises and not honoring the Atlantic Accord.

As far as Newfoundland and Labrador itself is concerned, should this new party actually field candidates in the province (Stevens claims to already have candidates lined up) it would almost guarantee Harper's Conservatives would be shut out. The domino effect of the ABC campain, the Bill Casey factor and this new party might also be felt in places across Atlantic Canada and among sympathetic voters in Saskatchewan.

In Newfoundland and Labrador there are only 3 Conservative ridings and those are on the Avalon Peninsula, coincidentally in the area where the highest level of Nationalist sentiment exists.

Consider that a new Progressive Canadian party would likely run on a core of PC-like policies, make use of provincial PC workers appeal to conservative voters.

In addition, the newly formed NL-First party in the province would attract nationalist voters and with a former provincial Tory at its helm is sure to attract at least some old school conservatives as well.

Adding to all of this is the potential that Williams' might indeed use his unprecedented popularity with voters to truly make an attempt at defeating Harper and you've got a scenario that would see the conservative vote split among enough parties that it would almost assure a Liberal victory across the board.

In the past few weeks Premier Williams has lowered the volume on the ABC rhetoric, just a little, but neither he nor Sinclair Stevens are dumb when it comes to political brinksmanship. Make no mistake, the breaking of this story today was no accident. It was done with a clear purpose in mind and Stephen Harper might be well advised to put his pride in his back pocket, use the narrow window of opportunity given to him and find a way to once again make ABC something best left in the school yard.

Yet Another 2007 Year End Review

What can I say, I haven't written much lately but like the rest of you I'm busy this time of year. That said, since I'm sitting in a hotel room tonight in the self proclaimed "Center of the Universe" and since over the past week or so I’ve listened to, or been reading, “year end review” pieces from media outlets and pundits alike I figured I might as well jump right in.

All the lists I've come across so far are mildly interesting as a means of reminding us of the events of the past year. Unfortunately they all failed to make note of some of the more important and relevent events relating to Newfoundland and Labrador. Well, rather than complain about the hard work of others, here’s my list.

Submitted for your approval, Web Talk’s 2007 "Year in Review"

January – Prime Minister Stephen Harper proves his concern for the environment by taking on a personal recycling project. In January Harper recycled the old Mulroney concept of an “Ambassador of Fisheries” by appointing former provincial Finance Minister Loyola Sullivan to the job. Since then the two Loyola’s have resoundlingly disproved the old adage that “two heads are better than one”.

February – It was February of 2007, just prior to the federal budget being brought down, that the Government of Canada (still referring to itself as “Canada’s New Government”) announced what would become a series of hikes in ferry rates and fuel surcharges. While Fabian Manning and Norm Doyle ran for cover and avoided any questions on the subject, Loyola Hearn proudly told anyone who would listen about how great this was for the people of Newfoundland and Labrador because it would allow Ottawa to put more money into the service. Can anyone say big raises for staff?

It was also in February that the St. John’s Airport Authority proudly announced that Astraeus Airlines was going to step in and take over the NL to England route abandoned by Air Canada (in deference to their preferred customers in Nova Scotia). Unfortunately later in the year the announcement would come that Astraeus was also pulling out because Air Canada, smelling competition, had undercut the service and (though not said publicly) idiotic customers in the province had failed to support Astraeus and instead bought tickets with Canada’s National Airline. I sometimes believe we are our own worst enemies.

March – Ottawa brought down its infamous budget. The federal budget unilaterally changed the signed Atlantic Accord agreements between the Feds and Newfoundland and Labrador (plus Nova Scotia) and essentially screwed over the people of Atlantic Canada.

It reversed promises made by Stephen Harper to remove all non-renewable resources from the equalization formula and touched off a war of words that is still underway today. The budget also forced a very proud and strong willed MP from Nova Scotia, to vote against his own party and in doing so get himself ejected from caucus.

Meanwhile a much less proud and weak willed MP from Newfoundland, Loyola Hearn tried to sell the benefits of the budget to his people while an even weaker MP, Fabian Manning, sat in the parliamentary chair of the Finance Minister and laughed along with Stephen Harper as he mocked the stand taken by the province. Like I’ve said before, we’re our own worst enemies sometimes.

April – It was in April of 2007 that Lieutenant Governor Ed Roberts delivered a provincial thrown speech in which the term “Masters of our own house” became cause for much discussion in Newfoundland and Labrador. The speech was peppered with nationalistic rhetoric and was clearly designed to send a strong message to Ottawa and to the people of Newfoundland and Labrador that if Ottawa was going to stand in our way then to hell with them. We were going to do what needed to be done in spite of them.

May – On May 11 thousands gathered on Confederation Hill for a rally in support of the province’s position on equalization. The PWG and Labrador flags waved proudly all over the hill, VOCM’s Randy Simms hosted the event and, in a rare display of bi-partisan cooperation, provincial PC, Liberal and NDP alike joined on the steps of Confederation building to get the message out.

My favorite protest sign that day: “A penny saved is a penny Hearned”.

Unfortunately the demonstration got very few media cycles, with the national press, who opted instead to cover a story about 10 demonstrators outside Toronto city hall that evening. Typical.

June – This was the month Premier Rodney McDonald of Nova Scotia finally found some semblance of a backbone and testified before a senate committee looking into the budget and its impacts on the Atlantic Accord. In his statement Premier McDonald was almost poetic. His words were the words of a statesman and, though ultimately ineffective, were inspiring.

Unfortunately as well the same man who said in that testimony, “…the word of their government is to be questioned - and the contracts it signs on their behalf - not worth the paper they are written on”, later went on to bend over and sell out to the Prime Minister, much to the chagrin of the people of Nova Scotia.

This was also the month that talks over the Hebron oil project started to get back on track much to the chagrin of the pundits who had proudly expounded on the perceived fact that William’s had blown it and was driving the provincial economy into the toilet. Sorry guys but the economy is doing just fine.

July – Rumors make the rounds that General Rick Hillier has his eye on the Premier’s job when his military days are over. No confirmation or out and out denial ever surfaced so I guess we’ll all have to wait and see if we are dumb enough to elect someone who has spent his entire adult life taking orders from Canadian political leaders.

August – This was the month of all Hebron all the time. local media, political analysts and water cooler chatter were all consumed with the Hebron MOU. Everyone (except the Liberal party of Newfoundland and Labrador) loved the fact that Danny Williams had forced the hand of the biggest oil giant on the planet and won, but the questions around exactly what the deal meant would not go away. Liberal leader Gerry Reid posed a series of questions to premier Williams, fed them to the media and did everything in his power to make the Hebron MOU look like a bad deal for the province. Rightly or wrongly that view failed to gain any traction and likely helped lead to the demise of Reid’s political career in the election that followed.

September – Prime Minister Stephen Harper publicly refers to Canada as a bi-cultural society and in doing so denies the historical stand of Canada that it supports a multiculturalism. According to the Prime Minister, who had already pushed through a motion to recognize the Quebecois as a nation, there are only two cultures in Canada and the rest of us simply don’t exist.

This was also the month before the provincial election and a time for campaigning by the candidates in the province. One of those candidates - Simon Lono - with the Liberal party, stands out in my personal memory for his antics and the ultimate outcome of his campaign. Good luck on the recovery Simon, both the physical and political.

October – This was a very busy month.

Of course October was election month in Newfoundland and Labrador. It was also a month that saw a massive blue tidal wave sweep over the province in one of the biggest election wins of any party in the province’s history. Not a good night for Prime Minister Stephen Harper I suspect.

Aside from the election itself, October 2007 was also a busy month on other political fronts.

Nova Scotia premier, Rodney McDonald, buckles under to the Prime Minister and accepts a pseudo-deal over the Atlantic Accord and in doing so publicly turned his back on the one federal MP in his province who did what Rodney asked of the province’s MPs. Stood by his people, something Rodney clearly was unwilling to do.

Also in October the fledgling Newfoundland and Labrador First Party (NL First) formally announced that it intended to run a full slate of candidates in the next federal election. Since that time the party has been formally registered as a federal party.

It was the month the Canadian dollar hit par with the green back and started a public outcry over the cost of goods. Why should we pay 30 or 40 percent more than Americans for the same products people wondered? Good question, but we still pay more don’t we?

It was also the month when stories broke that Russian test flights were skirting Canadian airspace without permission and that (even though Goosebay is not a required base in Ottawa’s view) Canadian fighters were temporarily stationed there because it was taking them too long to respond from the more politically, and less strategically, located base in Quebec.

November – Premier Williams, after months and months and a few more months of prodding by individuals and groups like NLDL.org, publicly states that he is working on a deal that would see a smelter built in Labrador to take advantage of lower Churchill power and create jobs here rather than simply fill provincial coffers by exporting the valuable resource. I guess time will tell how realistic or sincere his statements really are on this one.

December – Danny Williams is named newsmaker of the year by several publications and pundits, including those at the infamous Mop and Pail. It’s also the time when Santa circled the globe bring joy to boys and girls, except, as Loyola Hearn put it, to the “bad little boys”.

One message to Loyola Hearn: If I’m not in hell when you get there Loyola, you can start without me.

Anyway folks, there’s the Web Talk synopsis of 2007. Of course there were many other events that may have been on the top of your list but that’s what our comments section is for.

Have a great 2008 everyone and thanks for the wonderful support in the year gone by.