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Monday, November 17, 2008

What Does Vale Inco's Annoucement Mean for NL?

It’s been a long time in the planning but the recent announcement by Vale Inco means ground will be broken in 2009 on a new hydromet nickel processing facility at Longer Harbour, Newfoundland. The plant will process Voisey’s Bay nickel.

The news is welcomed in the region, especially with employment figures of 1600+ during the 3 year construction phase and estimates of 450 full time production employees being tossed around, but there are still questions that need to be answered.

When former premier Brian Tobin was in office he promised the people of Newfoundland and Labrador, in reference to the minerals at Voisey’s Bay, “…not one teaspoon will leave the province for processing”.

Eventually, after much negotiation, a deal was struck by Mr. Tobin’s successor and now former premier, Roger Grimes, who is today patting himself on the back and desperately seeking some recognition after the Vale Inco announcement.

The deal eventually signed by Grimes allowed Vale Inco to ship ore concentrate out of the province for processing until such time as a new processing plant could be built. The agreement also calls for Vale Inco to then begin processing the ore in the province and, once the mine’s life has expired, begin processing ore from other sources to make up for what was shipped out prior to the facility coming online.

The question I would like answered is, “will this ever happen”?

Good news story and potential employment opportunities aside, in November of 2005 Vale Inco shipped it’s first of many billions of “teaspoons” of the valuable resource out of the Voisey Bay site in Labrador. By the time the proposed hydromet plant is built at Long Harbour, at the end of 2011, many more teaspoons will have been sent away.

Based on early production estimates back in 2005, by the time the new processing plant is built in late 2011 or early 2012 (if it’s even on schedule) more than 660 million pounds of Nickel concentrate will have been shipped to Sudbury Ontario for processing. In addition to the Nickel, 30 million pounds of valuable cobalt, 120 million pounds of copper and a further 420 million pounds of copper concentrate will have been sent out of the province.

That’s a lot of raw material to find “somewhere else” so it can be diverted to Long Harbour, Newfoundland and Labrador once Voiesy’s Bay has outlived its usefulness.

Yes, perhaps new finds could potentially fill the void, but only if they can be found.

Unfortunately new nickel deposits aren’t sitting on every street corner. Finding one isn’t as easy as getting a Big Mac when you want one .

Yes, ore could potentially be re-directed from smelters in other parts of Canada but what level of political influence will be exerted to stop that from happening if the ore is to be taken away from say Sudbury, Ontario or Thompson, Manitoba and jobs are put in jeopardy?

Today concentrate from Voisey Bay is being processed in Sudbury and that supply will no longer be available to Ontario once this new facility comes online. That’s likely to cause enough concern in the Canadian heartland but one can only imagine the reaction if, once the Voisey’s Bay is depleted, further shipments to Sudbury are taken away and sent to Newfoundland.

In addition to the political ramifications there is the question of whether or not there might be technical reasons for Newfoundland and Labrador waiting a long time for those “teaspoons” to start trickling in.

I may be totally off base and perhaps someone with a metallurgical background can help me out here, but reading between the lines of recent news releases makes me question if it is technically feasible to process “other” ore at the new hydromet facility.

Just about every official comment, news release and public statement, from both the company and government over the past few days, with reference to the new facility, has for some reason made a point of including something to the effect that:

The company has proven that, “…the technology will work on Voisey’s Bay ore.”

Or

“…is capable of processing the Voisey’s Bay product.”

Why do they feel the need to specify the "Voisey's Bay" product as opposed to simply saying the system works for processing nickel?

Is it possible the technology being put in place has been designed in such a way that processing is limited to a specific mineral composition or ore type?

Maybe I’m tilting at windmills here but the fact that the proponents appear so keen including those words in public communications is a little unsettling.

The original promise of “not one teaspoon” was made by a former Liberal premier.

The Voisey’s Bay deal was signed by another Liberal premier.

It’s now up to the current PC premier to make sure the people of Newfoundland and Labrador are fully informed and it will be up to a future premier, no matter the stripe, to make sure the original promise is honored in full.

It’s been a long road and it's not over yet.

Time will tell.

11 comments:

WJM said...

Why do they feel the need to specify the "Voisey's Bay" product as opposed to simply saying the system works for processing nickel?

Because hydromet was originally developed to process laterite ores mined in tropical regions like Goro.

Applying hydromet technology to sulfide ore concentrate, like that produced at Voisey's Bay, was not a sure thing ten years ago. That technology has now been proven. By Vale-Inco. In its test plant in Newfoundland.

Danny Williams kept raising doubts about that, as part of his campaign of fear. Now he's been proven wrong.

Anonymous said...

The two paragraphs below are from your article. Myles, you do remember the "Atlantic Accord" debacle where we needed the other 97.7 per cent of the Canadian Parliamentary System to push it through, and we found out that everyone was against it. I suspect when the ore is demanded to be sent back to our province, the same system will have to launch it into orbit or it won't be launched at all and we do know the covetous attitude of those Central Canada MPs and the lies that they tell.

I think the day when the IOU on the Nickel Ore is called, it will prove to be a big "Goose Egg" for the province of NL. So Premier Williams might just be right when he says that there are other technicalities lurking in the INCO Contract.

I suspect the announcement made last week by Vale Inco was made to shut up the people of NL and tide Vale Inco over with a somewhat serener period while we are going through the tumult in this turbulent economic period which the whole world is facing.

I think that the World is in for a long session of hard times, more like a Depression than a Recession. As far as I am concerned we have gone past Recession mode, things are looking more like the Depressions of 1873 and 1929, but there is more of a resemblance to the 1873 Depression, since things came down the chute in an order much the same manner as they are evolving today.

This time around it is the Investment Banks' sub-prime mortgage worthless financial bundles that brought things to a halt; back in 1873 the Railways of Europe did the same type of worthless financial bundling. Also the United States refined it Agriculture Industry to a point where it took over the Wheat Markets of Europe, much like China has taken over the Manufacturing Sector economies of North America and Europe in today's downturn. As a result the farmers of Europe lost its Agriculture Sector to the United States and everything fell into the abyss. History sure has a strange way of repeating itself, doesn't it?

==================================


"Yes, ore could potentially be re-directed from smelters in other parts of Canada but what level of political influence will be exerted to stop that from happening if the ore is to be taken away from say Sudbury, Ontario or Thompson, Manitoba and jobs are put in jeopardy?

Today concentrate from Voisey Bay is being processed in Sudbury and that supply will no longer be available to Ontario once this new facility comes online. That’s likely to cause enough concern in the Canadian heartland but one can only imagine the reaction if, once the Voisey’s Bay is depleted, further shipments to Sudbury are taken away and sent to Newfoundland".

Below are a couple of addresses where you can learn about the Depression of 1873.

http://www.ci.green-bay.wi.us/geninfo/mayors_past/1873_panic.html


http://dig.lib.niu.edu/gildedage/narr3.html

Patriot said...

Thanks for the technical response WJM but I think you are misreading my post and jumping the gun on whether anyone is wrong or not.

Your explanation identifies why they would be saying "it works for Nickel processing" but it does not address why they are specifically and repeadedly saying it works for "Voisey's Bay nickel".

There seems to be a slight difference there in my opinion.

I would simply like them to come out and say it will work for nickel period.

This may sound picky but I've learned to read between the lines with anything coming from official sources like governments and corporations.

Saying the process will work for "Voisey's Bay nickel" is not the same as saying it will work for nickel that is supposed to be shipped back from other sources to make up for the ore extracted to date.

The jury is still out on that one and will be until the day actually comes that the ore is required.

Anonymous said...

I, too, can't understand why they keep saying it works for Voisey's Bay Nickel, I would like for them to come out, as well as you would Myles and say that the hydromet processing works for nickel processing period.

Maybe Premier Williams has that answer and wouldn't mind releasing it, or might that be a technicality of which he refers to that is lurking in the Voisey's Contract?

WJM said...

Your explanation identifies why they would be saying "it works for Nickel processing" but it does not address why they are specifically and repeadedly saying it works for "Voisey's Bay nickel".

Because, for a decade, there were doubts about whether it would.

They are putting those doubts to rest. If it works for sulfide ores like Voisey's Bay, it works for nickel concentrate from ANY mine in operation in the world today, or in the future.

Anonymous said...

I'm skeptical that this Hydromet technology even works at all. 2 Billion to put a plant in Long Harbour is a drop in the bucket compared to the value of the minerals in Voisey's Bay.

It seems odd that after years of secretly attempting to test a previously unsuccessful technology, that at the eleventh hour when the deadline was fast apporoaching, they finally were able to make it work and give the entire project a green light. At best, I think they simply bought themselves more time in hope that, in the end, they can make it work before the plant has to go into operation.

I bet that once the plant is built Val Inco comes out and says something along the lines with 'opps, sorry but this isn't what we expected....isn't going to work....we tried and had best of intentions...etc., etc.." Then they will be off the hook, aside from polital pressures and maybe a few minor lawsuites, for the entire agreement, including shipping anything back that they've taken over the past few years.

Danny said you could drive a Mack truck through it. I've heard through some in the know that the contract is about a thick as a phone book, 12 point font, whereas it should sit 3 feet off that floor, double sided fine print with about 50 appendices.

Everybody wants Danny to detail what he means by the contract being "full of holes", but any good lawyer knows you don't 'show your hand' until your day in court.

Not one ounce, alright. Not one ounce will ever be processed in NL. Just 2 billion+ to make it look like they tried.

WJM said...

Anonymous, your "someone in the know" doesn't have a clue.

Here is the Voisey's Bay legal text.

But hey, should all resource agreements "sit 3 feet off that floor, double sided fine print with about 50 appendices"?

If so, where's Danny's three-foot Hebron agreement?

Heck, where's any Hebron agreement AT ALL? Unlike Grimes' Voisey's Bay deal, Danny refuses to release it.

Why?

Maybe your person "in the know" can shed some light on that....

NL-ExPatriate said...

We are upset our ore is being shipped out unprocessed to Sudbury Ontario and Thomson Manitoba which is in our own confederation.

Imagine how we are going to look when we demand that ore get shipped out of some third world country to be processed here in Newfoundland Labrador?

So even if the ore gets replaced we still lose.

What we need is legislation like Ontario has which stipulates that no resource is allowed to be exported in it's raw state without maximizing the benefits from that resource.

Danny Williams might crow from the roof tops that he has made good deals with our oil resource but our oil like our Iron ore and Our nickle and our copper and our hydro electricity are all being shipped elsewhere and our people are leaving to work on those same resources elsewhere.

Anonymous said...

Why can't we in Newfoundland and Labrador negotiate the most lucrative deal from our oil. Read the story below in today's Globe and Mail, the risks that have to be taken to go through the Strait of Aden to get Oil to the World markets.

We should demand that our politicians negotiate long and hard before they give any more of our Oil Resources away.

Big Oil cannot fool us any longer, we know the inherent risks that are involved in getting Oil to the World Markets from such dangerous locations.

The province of Newfoundland and Labrador has Conventional Oil and, a secure government which provides great security for Big Oil, so let our Politicians negotiate a Premium from our oil resources that is indicative of what it is worth, so that Newfoundlanders and Labradorians can live in dignity with a little bit of money in their pockets for once in their lives.

--------------------------------

An article in today's Globe and May titled:

"SOMALI PIRATES MAINTAIN CONTROL OF TANKER".

AP Video - Tuesday, November 18, 2008 at 12:17 EST

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081118.wvpirates18/VideoStory/VideoLineup/News

A SUPERTANKER loaded with two million barrels of oil is hijacked by Somali pirates far off the coast of Kenya. An official in Somalia is vowing to rescue the ship, using force if necessary.

Anonymous said...

http://www.cbc.ca/fifth/2008-2009/where_the_women_went/video.html

I thought I would pass this on to your readers Myles. I know it was on TV last night but just in case they missed it heres thier second chance to view it.You will need High speed internet.

Anonymous said...

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2009/01/28/voiseys-bay.html

Not one ounce will ever be processed in NL by Vale Inco.